Climate forecast: 40% chance world will hit 1.5C threshold in next five years

<p>There is a 40% chance that global temperatures will reach 1.5C above pre-industrial levels in the next five years – and the odds are rising.</p> <p>The 2015 Paris climate accord set a goal of keeping temperature rises under that threshold to prevent the worst effects of global warming.</p> <p>Last year the UN World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) said there was a 20% chance of the threshold being breached.</p> <p>In its latest forecast, however, the organisation said the worsening of the odds is due to improvements in technology showing that the world had “actually warmed more than we thought already”.</p> <p>Leon Hermanson, a climate scientist at the UK Met Office, said the warming was especially pronounced over lightly-monitored polar regions.</p> <div class="sdc-site-layout-sticky-region " data-interscroller="true" data-format="floated-mpu" data-role="sticky-region" data-component-name="sdc-site-layout"> <div class="sdc-site-layout-sticky-region__target"> <div class="sdc-site-layout-sticky-region__mask"> <div class="sdc-site-layout-sticky-region__content"> <div class="sdc-site-au-wrapper "> <div class="sdc-site-au site-component-vertical-margin" data-ad-format="mpu-1" data-type="" aria-hidden="true"> <p> <span class="sdc-site-au__label-text" data-label-text="Advertisement">Advertisement</span> </p> </p></div> </p></div> </p></div> </p></div> </p></div> </p></div> <p>He said: “It’s a warning that we need to take strong action.”</p> <p>WMO secretary-general Professor Petteri Taalas added: “Increasing temperatures mean more melting ice, higher sea levels, more heatwaves and other extreme weather, and greater impacts on food security, health, the environment and sustainable development,” he said.</p> <div class="sdc-article-widget sdc-article-related-stories" data-component-name="sdc-article-related-stories"> <div class="sdc-article-related-stories__content"> <h3 class="sdc-article-related-stories__title">More on Climate Change</h3> </p></div> </div> <p>“This study shows – with a high level of scientific skill – that we are getting measurably and inexorably closer to the lower target of the Paris Agreement on Climate Change.</p> <div class="sdc-site-video sdc-article-widget callfn" data-fn="sdc-site-video" data-component-name="sdc-site-video" data-lite="true" data-id="id_e5cb8d79-45cb-45a0-a945-10ed63843c88" data-video-id="ref:e5cb8d79-45cb-45a0-a945-10ed63843c88" data-account-id="6058004172001" data-provider="brightcove" data-originator-id="51" data-clip-type="" data-sdc-video-id="e5cb8d79-45cb-45a0-a945-10ed63843c88" data-sensitive="false" data-player-id="RC9PQUaJ6" data-video-blacklisted-originator-ids="" data-package="" data-asset-path="" data-asset-version="" data-competition="" data-sport-category="" data-amp-iframe-embed="" data-autoplay="" data-options="" data-video-ad-unit="" data-is-live-stream="false" data-state="loading" data-copy-url-text="URL copied to clipboard" tabindex="-1" readability="7"> <p class="sdc-site-video__accessibility-message" data-role="accessibility-message">Please use Chrome browser for a more accessible video player</p> <div class="sdc-site-video__inner"> <div class="sdc-site-video__content"> <span aria-hidden="true" data-role="poster" class="sdc-site-video__poster"><br /> <img src="https://e3.365dm.com/21/05/768x432/skynews-marin-county-california_5369987.jpg?20210504180243%20600w" alt="" srcset="" aria-hidden="true" class="sdc-site-video__poster-img"><br /> <span class="sdc-site-video__loader"></span></p> <p> </span><br /> <video id="id_e5cb8d79-45cb-45a0-a945-10ed63843c88" data-embed="default" data-application-id="" class="video-js sdc-site-video__tag" controls="" playsinline=""></video> </div><figcaption class="sdc-site-video__caption"> <p> <span class="sdc-site-video__caption-text" data-role="caption-text">California’s historic drought</span><br /> </figcaption></div> </p></div> <p>“It is yet another wake-up call that the world needs to fast-track commitments to slash greenhouse gas emissions and achieve carbon neutrality,” he said.</p> <p>The Paris Accord target looks at temperature changes over a 30-year average, rather than a single year, but the WMO report said that every year between now and 2025 is likely to see average temperature increases of at least 1C.</p> <p>It also forecast a 90% chance that at least one of those years will be the warmest on record, with temperatures higher than they were in 2016.</p> <div class="sdc-site-video sdc-article-widget callfn" data-fn="sdc-site-video" data-component-name="sdc-site-video" data-lite="true" data-id="id_29ab7933-70e7-4826-a63d-d7a6f866433b" data-video-id="ref:29ab7933-70e7-4826-a63d-d7a6f866433b" data-account-id="6058004172001" data-provider="brightcove" data-originator-id="51" data-clip-type="" data-sdc-video-id="29ab7933-70e7-4826-a63d-d7a6f866433b" data-sensitive="false" data-player-id="RC9PQUaJ6" data-video-blacklisted-originator-ids="" data-package="" data-asset-path="" data-asset-version="" data-competition="" data-sport-category="" data-amp-iframe-embed="" data-autoplay="" data-options="" data-video-ad-unit="" data-is-live-stream="false" data-state="loading" data-copy-url-text="URL copied to clipboard" tabindex="-1" readability="7"> <p class="sdc-site-video__accessibility-message" data-role="accessibility-message">Please use Chrome browser for a more accessible video player</p> <div class="sdc-site-video__inner"> <div class="sdc-site-video__content"> <span aria-hidden="true" data-role="poster" class="sdc-site-video__poster"><br /> <img src="https://e3.365dm.com/21/05/768x432/skynews-daily-climate-show_5389514.jpg?20210521102258%20600w" alt="" srcset="" aria-hidden="true" class="sdc-site-video__poster-img"><br /> <span class="sdc-site-video__loader"></span></p> <p> </span><br /> <video id="id_29ab7933-70e7-4826-a63d-d7a6f866433b" data-embed="default" data-application-id="" class="video-js sdc-site-video__tag" controls="" playsinline=""></video> </div><figcaption class="sdc-site-video__caption"> <p> <span class="sdc-site-video__caption-text" data-role="caption-text">Chibeze’s fight for renewable energy in Ghana</span><br /> </figcaption></div> </p></div> <p>The world can expect a wetter Australia, a wetter African Sahel, and a drier North America, with more cyclones in the Atlantic, it added.</p> <p>Gavin Schmidt, director of NASA’s Goddard Institute for Space Studies, said: “There’s a little bit of up and down in the annual temperatures but these long term-trends are unrelenting.</p> <p>“It seems inevitable that we’re going to cross these boundaries, and that’s because there are delays in the system, there is inertia in the system, and we haven’t really made a big cut to global emissions as yet.”</p> <p>Keeping to the 1.5C limit will require dramatic efforts to cut carbon emissions by nearly half by 2030 and to net zero 20 years later.</p> <p>But the world’s current promises put us on track for 2-3C of warming by the end of the century.</p> <p><strong>Every day at 6.30pm Sky News broadcasts the first daily prime time news show dedicated to climate change.</strong></p> <p><strong>Hosted by Anna Jones, The Daily Climate Show is following Sky News correspondents as they investigate how global warming is changing our landscape and how we all live our lives.</strong></p> <p><strong>The show will also highlight solutions to the crisis and show how small changes can make a big difference.</strong></p> <p>The post <a rel="nofollow" href="https://patabook.com/news/2021/05/27/climate-forecast-40-chance-world-will-hit-1-5c-threshold-in-next-five-years/">Climate forecast: 40% chance world will hit 1.5C threshold in next five years</a> appeared first on <a rel="nofollow" href="https://patabook.com/news">Patabook News </a>.</p>

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